Calls for a cap on SE Queensland’s population fly in the face of demographic realities and are likely unachievable according to a report released today by The University of Queensland’s Centre for Population Research (QCPR).
Slower growth would also exacerbate the skills shortage and accelerate population ageing.
High population growth and its implications have led some commentators to call for a population cap, and this has struck a chord with Queensland residents – 60% responding to a Galaxy Poll favouring capped growth.
But new projections presented in QCPR’s report show that halting growth is not feasible.
“Even if we could erect effective barriers to migration the population of the region would still grow by more than 300,000 just from natural increase,” said lead author of the report Professor Martin Bell.
“Under this scenario, dubbed Fortress SEQ, the population grows to a peak of 3.5 million in 2046. Population dynamics have a great deal of inertia- it’s like a super-tanker at sea- population growth takes a long time to slow down.”
“If Queenslanders truly want to put a Population Cap on the Region, holding it at today’s level of 3.1 million, not only do we need walls to keep people out, we would have to ask 9,600 people to leave, every year for the next 40 years, just to offset natural increase.”
Professor Bell believes that the 20 year horizon used in the government’s projections is too short-sighted for effective planning. He says that if Governments want to shape or plan for population trends, they need to look ahead 50 years or more.
Based on current trends, the report predicts a population of 5.7 million by 2051. But the report goes further; the future depends very much on continuing levels of migration. By mid century SE Queensland’s population could range from 4.5 million to 6.3 million.
With lower migration, SE Queensland will also suffer accelerated ageing. With high migration, 20.9% of SE Queenslanders will be over 65 in 2051. Under Fortress SEQ, the figure would increase to 29.7%.
“That may not seem to be a huge difference, but it does point to much higher aged dependency ratios.”
Professor Bell says we need to decide on a realistic target population for South East Queensland, one which is sustainable economically, socially and environmentally.
“We can run then run the projections backwards to see what levels of migration are needed to achieve it.”
“For example to achieve a population of 5 million by 2051 we would need an average migration gain of 23,100 per annum – less than half the 52,600 average we have had over the last 40 years”.
The reality is that SE Queensland’s population will continue to grow rapidly, and there is little scope to limit or divert that growth.
Professor Bell said: “The government has the potential to shape Queensland’s population future at the margins, but what Queenslanders really need is a long term vision of a sustainable society, and long range planning to accommodate long run growth.”
Background
SEQ’s population currently stands at about 3.1 million people and will reach 4.4 million in the next twenty years according to the Queensland Government’s latest projections. With current growth of 70,000 (2.5%) per year, this means an extra 1.3 million people by 2031, an increase of 40% above the current level.
Legal and Institutional Constraints
In practice, the report says that the States have limited power to control population growth. The Australian Constitution prevents discrimination based on State of residence, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights guarantees citizens rights to move freely in their own country.
Most power to influence population resides with the Federal Government, but even it has limited choices in controlling some forms of migration:
• ANZ citizens move freely across the Tasman,
• There are 1 million Australians overseas with a right of return at any time, and
• We have international obligations to refugees and family reunion.
The Federal Government has opened the Australian labour market to address concerns about a national skill shortage, so States trying to limit growth may be at loggerheads with Federal Government initiatives.
State and Local Government can try to influence settlement patterns within the country using development initiatives to attract people to regional centres, and restrictions on land availability to discourage growth elsewhere.
“Our review of the international evidence shows that regional development initiatives have a poor record’, said Professor Bell, “and restricting land availability inevitably pushes prices up. To disperse SE Queensland’s population to regional centres would require massive public and private investment.”
Media: Professor Martin Bell +61 7 3365 7087 or email: m.bell@uq.edu.au
MEDIA BRIEFING: Population plus: What can Australia sustain?
DATE and TIME: Thu 25 March 2010 at 10am in Brisbane (11am AEDT- also available online)
DURATION: Approx 60 min
VENUE: Level 5, Dorothy Hill Library, Bldg 50
University of Queensland, St Lucia 4072
For further information, please contact the AusSMC on 08 7120 8666 or info@aussmc.org
