New research by The University of Queensland and the University of Exeter has found that cyclone activity is clustered instead of random, as was previously thought, which has important long-term implications for coastal ecosystems and human population.
Professor Peter Mumby from UQ’s Global Change Institute and the School of Biological Sciences conducted the study in collaboration with Professor David Stephenson and Dr Renato Vitolo (Willis Research Fellow) at the University of Exeter’s Exeter Climate Systems research centre.
Professor Mumby says cyclones have major economic, social and ecological impacts, and models using their occurrence influence a number of planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning.
“Understanding how the frequency of cyclones varies is important for both the people that experience them and the ecosystems that they impact,” he said.
The findings published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA map the variability in cyclones throughout the Americas using a 100-year historical record of cyclone tracks.
The UQ and University of Exeter study showed that short, intense periods of cyclones followed by relatively long, quiet periods, were found around the Caribbean Sea and the clustering was particularly strong in Florida, the Bahamas, Belize, Honduras, Haiti and Jamaica.
Modelling of corals reefs of the Caribbean found that clustered cyclones are less damaging to coral reef health than random cyclone events because the following prolonged period without cyclones allows the corals to recover and then remain in a reasonable state prior to being hit by the next series of storms.
The following prolonged period without cyclones allows the corals to recover and then remain in a reasonable state prior to being hit by the next series of storms.
It is important to consider the clustered nature of cyclone events when predicting the impacts of storms and climate change on ecosystems.
“In the case of coral reefs, forecasts of habitat collapse were historically overly pessimistic and have been predicted at least 10 years too early because cyclones were assumed to occur randomly over time,” Professor Mumby said.
“If we are to predict the future of coral reefs, it's really important to consider the clustering of cyclone events. For a given long-term rate of cyclones, for example once per decade, clustered events are less damaging," he said.
“Cyclones have always been a natural part of coral reef lifecycles, however, with the additional stresses people have placed upon ecosystems like fishing, pollution and climate change, the impacts of cyclones linger a lot longer than they did in the past."
Co-author Professor David Stephenson said the clustering of storms was a global phenomenon that needed to be better quantified statistically in risk assessments.
“We didn’t at first expect clustering to have advantages, but this study has clearly shown that clustering can help by giving ecosystems more time to recover from natural catastrophes,” he said.
“The research also has wider implications for other systems such as the dynamics and viability of insurance companies and the provision of reinsurance protection.
“Reinsurance companies are a bit like ecosystems and so need time to recover after major losses - so clustering of cyclones allows the industry to build profits before the next cluster of storm losses.
“They are different from corals in that they actually need a few cyclones for them to be able to grow.”
Researchers: Peter Mumby is Professor of marine ecology and heads the Healthy Oceans program at the Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
David Stephenson is Professor of statistical climatology at the University of Exeter and a founding member of the Willis Research Network (www.willisresearchnetwork.com), the research arm of Willis Re which kindly helped fund the research at Exeter.
About the Global Change Institute
The Global Change Institute at The University of Queensland, Australia, is a new source of game-changing research, ideas and advice for addressing the challenges of global change. The Global Change Institute advances discovery, creates solutions and advocates changes to policies that respond to challenges presented by climate change, technological innovation and population change.
About Exeter Climate Systems Exeter Climate Systems (XCS) is a world-leading research centre formed in the mathematics research institute at the University of Exeter in 2007. XCS works at the interface of mathematical and climate sciences, and has strong partnerships with the nearby UK Met Office. Four members of staff are (coordinating) lead authors in the forthcoming IPCC report.
Images
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/images/526_igorjuliakarl20100916.jpg
Source: NOAA: From this page:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html
Media:
Professor Peter Mumby (p.j.mumby@uq.edu.au)
Professor David Stephenson (d.b.stephenson@exeter.ac.uk)
Robert Mackay-Wood, Communications Manager, Global Change Institute (r.mackaywood@uq.edu.au, +61 7 3346 9041 or +61 410 491 159)
Information:
http://www.marinespatialecologylab.org
Free video clips of coral reefs: http://www.reefvid.org
