The ageing of the "baby boomers" will produce a big increase in demand for independent living in retirement villages, according to University of Queensland researchers.
"The aggregate level of demand for retirement village units by the year 2021 is likely to require the construction of an additional 26,500 units on current take up rates by retirees voluntarily choosing to move into this form of housing," Professor Bob Stimson said.
"If there was to be a 3 per cent annual increase in the demand for this type of housing then an additional 73,000 units will need to be constructed by the industry."
Professor Stimson and Sharon McGovern from the School of Geography, Planning and Architecture at The University of Queensland will discuss their findings in a paper to the Retirement Village Association of Australia annual conference in Melbourne tomorrow, Friday.
The researchers say their modelling of future demand suggests that the growth in new construction will be greatest in New South Wales and that demand in Queensland will overtake Victoria within a decade.
The research shows that the proportion of retirees choosing to move to a retirement village increases from about 1.5 per cent for those aged 65 to 74 years to almost 8 per cent for those aged 85 to 94 years.
"Currently Queensland and Western Australia have a share of the nation's aged people living in a retirement village that is significantly above their share of Australia's aged population," said Professor Stimson and Ms McGovern.
"However, Victoria's and Tasmania's retirees tend to lag behind the other states in their propensity to move to a retirement village."
In 1996 about 57,000 people aged 55 years and over lived in independent accommodation in retirement villages across Australia.
Most of the people moving to retirement villages relocate over only short distances, over half of them moving less than 30 km within the same region where they have been living.
Research shows that key factors in people choosing a retirement village are lifestyle related, with security being important. A big catalyst can be the loss of a partner and deteriorating health.
Stimson and McGovern say the retirement village industry faces big challenges as the baby boomers retire and age. "They will seek units with larger rooms, access to swimming pools and gymnasiums, energy efficient housing design, home offices, wiring for the internet and multi-media entertainment systems, and enough space for guests, friends and relatives to stay."
Two challenges facing the industry are how to incorporate more mixed tenure arrangements into village developments, and how to cater for a wider range of asset and income categories among retirees.
According to the researchers, the retirement village industry needs to do more to incorporate housing choices affordable to the ?asset and income poor' who are eligible for housing assistance.
"This will require governments to be prepared to offer incentives for the industry to respond appropriately to fill the increasing gap being left in the provision of affordable retirement housing for the poor retired as public housing programs have less access to capital funds," Professor Stimson said.
"To meet what will be a substantial increase in the numbers of poor households among the retirees, governments will have to look more and more to private industry to provide access to affordable housing for the elderly."
Media: Further details: Professor Bob Stimson: Telephone: (07) 3365 6307; Mobile: 0411-020627
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