Australia will need to introduce a national food plan to regulate how much food is produced and exported before global food demand outweighs supply, according to a food security expert at The University of Queensland (UQ).
Professor Michael D’Occhio, from The Global Change Institute at UQ, says that Australia’s domestic food market will come under pressure with the world demand for food expected to almost double by 2050.
He says a national debate on how much food Australia should produce is required before any decisions are made about water allocation from the Murray-Darling Basin, which produces one-third of Australia’s food.
Professor D’Occhio says Australia currently produces enough food to feed 80 million people, but demand for Australian food from overseas markets is expected to explode in the next few decades.
“Australian-grown food currently feeds 22.5 million Australians and 40 million people overseas, with food to feed another 20 million being lost at different points from production to sale," Professor D’Occhio said
"A further $5 billion worth of purchased food is wasted annually with most ending up in landfill each year.
“Food exported from Australia is highly valued overseas and is keenly sought by Asian countries and this demand is expected to increase substantially.”
Although Australia’s population could potentially grow from 22 to 30-35 million by 2050, it is the middle-class population of Asia, which is projected to increase to over 500 million in the next 20 years, that will put pressure on Australian domestic food markets.
“Australian food exports earn significant external revenue, which fluctuates between $25 billion and $32 billion annually, depending on seasonal conditions and the dominant commodity,” Professor D’Occhio said.
“Although this represents about 2.7% of global food movements, we should not underestimate the importance of Australian food exports to valued trading partners and we should have a national debate on what is the appropriate balance between food production for domestic consumption and export.
“This debate also needs to take into account the environment, demand on diminishing natural resources and the need for strong rural and regional communities, which are vital to Australia’s broad social fabric.”
Professor D’Occhio says the recently released draft Murray-Darling Basin Plan considers water in isolation and should take into account Australia’s future food productions needs.
“The debate on the allocation of water to either the environment or agriculture will remain uninformed until we have a better understanding of what food production in Australia will look like, or indeed should look like, by 2050,” Professor D’Occhio said.
“The pressing national debate is how much food should Australia produce in the future so that as a nation we are food secure and at the same time have healthy ecosystems.”
About the Global Change Institute
The Global Change Institute at UQ, Brisbane, Australia, investigates complex, interconnected, large-scale global issues in innovative ways, in order to contribute evidence-based, progressive solutions to the major problems of a rapidly-changing world.
The Global Change Institute is a vehicle for collaborative research, learning, engagement and advocacy. It seeks to partner with third-parties and achieve multi-disciplinary, integrated solutions to global change issues within the existing and projected frameworks of those problems: political, environmental, social, economic and technological.
Media: Prof. Michael D’Occhio, GCI Food Security Co-Focal Area Leader and Head of the School of Animal Studies (m.docchio@uqg.uq.edu.au 07 5460 1257 or 0417638420) or Robert Mackay-Wood, Communications Manager, Global Change Institute (r.mackaywood@uq.edu.au, 07 3346 9041 or 0410 491 159)
