A University of Queensland researcher is using advanced mathematics to assist in the preservation of Australia`s wildlife and ecosystems including the koala, the kangaroo, desert mound springs and the Great Barrier Reef.
In the latest edition of the University`s Research Report, Professor Possingham, Director of The Ecology Centre at UQ, says mathematical models are now an essential tool for wildlife and ecosystem management.
"To manage wildlife and ecosystems, we need to be able to predict the consequences of management actions such as designating essential habitat for koalas or altering water extraction patterns in the Great Artesian Basin. You can`t make a prediction without a model, so models are essential for the wise sustainable use of natural resources," Professor Possingham said.
"If computer-modelling had been available 100 years ago, many of our current environmental problems such as salinity wouldn`t have happened. We would have been able to predict the effects on the landscape of actions such as tree-clearing."
Professor Possingham`s computer-modelling is also being used to develop effective management strategies for kangaroos in the arid zone, the use of biological control agents, the design of marine reserve systems and the behaviour of small creatures living around mound springs.
In the Research Report 2001 article, high-profile environmentalist and Emeritus Professor Ian Lowe catalogues Professor Possingham`s outstanding career and research to date.
"(Professor Possingham) believes passionately that we will only be able to interact responsibly with the complex natural systems of Australia when we give that task a secure mathematical basis," Professor Lowe writes.
Professor Possingham says the traditional theoretical view of plant and animal populations is that they behave in a uniform way like gas particles in a jar, but this isn`t the case at all.
"Their movements in space and time are highly complex and involve a considerable amount of uncertainty. With advances in computing we can now begin to predict their future behaviour more accurately and hence deliver better tools to wildlife and ecosystem managers," he said.
Some current and developing projects include:
o Specialised software developed by Dr Ian Ball (former PhD student now based at The Australian Antarctic Division) and Professor Possingham is being used to help redesign the fully protected area system in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and develop eco-regional plans across the entire USA.
o With colleagues from UQ`s School of Geography, Planning and Architecture and The Australian Koala Foundation, Professor Possingham is developing mathematical methods for identifying the best pattern of reserve networks for remnant koala populations.
o With colleagues in the Weeds Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) and Dr Kat Shea (Pennsylvania State University), Professor Possingham is working on theories for cost-efficient weed eradication and containment methods with biological control agents and mechanical strategies.
o Supported by state and federal agencies, UQ researchers Dr Tony Pople, Dr Brigitta Tenhumberg, Dr Stuart Phinn, Professor Gordon Grigg and Professor Possingham are using population and statistical models to determine how best to monitor and manage kangaroo populations across eastern Australia.
o Fire management to retain diverse habitats and viable wildlife populations in natural areas is always a contentious issue. Professor Possingham and colleagues have developed tools to help park managers determine whether or not to burn or protect habitat in parks. The work is being applied to Fraser Island in a new project headed by Dr Greg Baxter from UQ Gatton.
The Research Report 2001 is a compilation of articles on the University`s key science, arts and humanities research projects throughout the year.
For futher information, contact Professor Hugh Possingham (telephone 07 3365 9766, email: hpossingham@zen.uq.edu.au). For a copy of Research Report 2001, contact Shirley Glaister (telephone 07 3365 2339, email: s.glaister@mailbox.uq.edu.au).
