Four eminent Chinese geoscientists visiting The University of Queensland (UQ) have predicted a high likelihood for strong earthquakes in Japan, Korea and surrounding regions early this century.
In a paper delivered at a recent international workshop in Tokyo, the scientists predicted that seismic activity in the north-east Asian region would increase remarkably, magnifying the likelihood of larger earthquakes.
The geoscientists are part of a contingent of 15 scientists from China, Japan and the US to visit QUAKES, the Queensland University Centre for Earthquake Studies in Brisbane, Australia this year, collaborating with The University of Queensland team led by Professor Peter Mora.
The UQ researchers are constructing new microphysically-based models and software systems to probe the physics of earthquakes on supercomputers. The models, which simulate physical processes such as fracture, friction, thermal, solid-fluid and chemical, provide a virtual laboratory for advancing earthquake science and solving earth environmental and industrial problems.
Next month a team co-leader within Japan's $600 million Earth Simulator project, a national priority science agenda project, will also visit QUAKES which is the international headquarters of ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation), the first Australian-led science initiative under APEC.
ACES is the international organisation that coordinates activities for scientists from its core participant economies (Australia, China, Japan and the US) to collaborate on predictive modelling of the entire earthquake generation process.
Professor Mora said the Chinese visitors were part of the ongoing ACES collaboration among a multi-disciplinary team of international scientists, primarily from Asian-Pacific economies. They are collaborating with UQ researchers on research into the physics of earthquakes and earthquake forecasting. They are also sharing their expertise with graduate students as part of the visiting researcher program.
The group includes two senior scientists from China's Centre for Analysis and Prediction at the China Seismological Bureau, Professor Xiang-chu Yin and Professor Ke-Yin Peng; plus Professor Mengfen Xia of the Physics Department at Peking University; and Dr Yu-Cang Wang of the LNM (Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics), Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Professor Yin and Professor Peng said prediction of earthquakes was an important task, with scientists in many countries working hard, often on a shoestring, to minimise the loss of life and devastation that could occur. Success in this field was a sign that human beings with noble ideals could make a difference in alleviating the pain of natural disasters. They said China was an earthquake prone region, with more than 10,000 earthquakes occurring each year.
"Most of these are small magnitude, but each year there are 20 earthquakes of magnitude 5, two or three of magnitude 6, and earthquakes of above magnitude 7 every three years,"
Professor Peng said.
Team leader Professor Yin said the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 near Beijing was the most devastating in history, with official estimates of 240,000 deaths.
Professor Yin has developed an earthquake prediction theory known as Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) and conducted the retrospective examination of that event in terms of LURR. They found prior to it, the LURR increased significantly and reached a high value. Professor Yin said that based on these results, if this earthquake occurred in recent years and using such new predictive tools, it was unlikely to have escaped the foresight of Chinese scientists.
Professor Yin said the scientists had come to the UQ QUAKES Centre because Professor Mora's team had developed an internationally famous Lattice Solid computing model for the earthquake process. "I am keen to understand whether this model can demonstrate the same features that our models have shown just prior to the rupture of an earthquake," he said.
Professor Xia said the scientists were collaborating with the UQ team to research the underlying mechanism of their own theory and a perceived "critical sensitivity" to earthquake generation.
"We have found it very worthwhile to participate in this academic exchange of opinions and collaboration with seismologists and computational scientists of this world-class research centre," he said. "Earthquakes are local catastrophic phenomena in the earth's crust, dependent on a complex system of details in the crust. Our research suggests that a common feature prior to these devastating catastrophes might be critical sensitivity, or responses to slight disturbances. To use a common analogy, think of a camel carrying a load of many pieces of straw. By themselves, each piece of straw is not much, but each straw adds to the load and a single additional straw can break the camel's back."
In a team effort, Professors Yin and Peng and Dr Wang will work with Professor Mora's team including Dr David Place, Steffan Abe and Dion Weatherley. They will study the implications of Australian earthquake occurrence and their potential predictive possibilities. By applying Professor Yin's own theory, they will attempt a computer simulation and forecast of the Australian continental seismicity that could be expected to happen within the next few months to years.
Dr Wang will return to the QUAKES group in November as a research fellow. By that time, UQ will house a national supercomputer facility. The Australian Solid Earth Simulator will have its main supercomputer in Brisbane and will be used by a multi-disciplinary national research team probing earthquake behaviour and other environmental problems, while pushing the frontiers of industrial solid mechanics.
The scientists are visiting Australia until September 5 under the ACES visitors program supported by the Australian Research Council's IREX program, and the National Science Foundation of China.
Media: Further information, Professor Peter Mora, telephone 07 3365 2128, or Jan King at UQ Communications 0413 601 248.
