Lava likelihood
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| Volcanic predictions ... potential to save lives |
A University of Queensland scientist has developed a computer model that could help provide more accurate predictions about volcanic eruptions. Dr Alina Hale, from the University’s Earth Systems Science Computational Centre, has been investigating a type of repetitive earthquake known as a long-period (LP) event, which often precedes changes in volcanic activity.
While the source of these LP earthquakes was not previously understood, scientists now think that areas of instability in volcanic lava flow, known as shear bands, might be the trigger. However, Dr Hale said that until now, no scientist had been able to establish an accurate correlation between the presence of shear bands and LP earthquakes.
She developed a computer model to address this deficiency, incorporating processes such as the formation of crystals and pressuresensitivity in lava to make the correlation more precise. She used data from the Soufrière Hills Volcano, which devastated the island of Montserrat in the West Indies in the late 1990s. She said the unique resources of the University’s Earth Systems Science Computational Centre enabled her to perform the research.
