Predicting the Next Wave

Dr Hubert Chanson

The aftermath of the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami has triggered some vital studies and dire predictions.

A UQ civil engineer is working with a team of international experts in coastal and river hydraulics to produce a new mathematical model to predict tsunami impacts on coastal towns.

The devastation caused by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami highlighted the inaccuracy of existing modelling and led to the research by Dr Hubert Chanson and colleagues from Japan, the US and New Zealand.

Dr Chanson said there were a number of models to predict tsunami propagation in deep water, but the Boxing Day tsunami and scientific data had shown that most models poorly predicted coastal plain flooding.

Current models underestimated the height of the Boxing Day tsunami above sea level by up to 20 metres in Western Sumatra and overestimated by as much as 10 metres in Bangladesh.

Dr Chanson is expanding on existing prediction models by analysing video, photos, surveys and aerial and satellite maps of the Boxing Day tsunami.

He believes wetlands and coral reefs absorbed much of the tsunami’s force in some regions, especially in parts of Bangladesh and in Mauritius.

Dr Chanson and his colleagues are developing a model that could predict tsunami spread and impact, or even flash flooding, and help emergency services and city planners.

Dr Chanson is also working on an improved dam spillway featuring stepped spilling to dampen the water’s destructive force.  The stepped spillway could be made out of roller compacted concrete and up to 50 percent cheaper to build than a conventional spillway.

Researchers at UQ’s Earth Systems Science Computational Centre (ESSCC) believe Dr Chanson’s work could be vital in the next decade.  They are predicting a tsunami or earthquake-related-consequence will hit Australia’s east coast.  Director of the ESSCC, Professor Peter Mora, said there was a high level of seismic activity within the earth’s plates surrounding Australia.

Professor Mora and his team of 20 staff study and simulate earthquakes and other solid earth phenomena with the help of one of Australia’s most powerful supercomputers.
“Our international research collaboration partners in the US forecast that within the next 10 years, an earthquake of at least 7 on the Richter Scale is likely to strike to the north of New Zealand,” Professor Mora said.

Funding
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Toyohashi University
of Technology President’s Research Committee
Researchers
Dr Hubert Chanson www.uq.edu.au/uqresearchers/researcher/chansonh.html
Email: h.chanson@uq.edu.au
Website: www.uq.edu.au/civeng/

On this site