New Growth Chart

City strip

An agreement between Queensland Treasury and The University of Queensland will provide $500,000 over five years to support demographic research in the Queensland Centre for Population Research. 

Population projections based on a powerful University of Queensland demographic model prove Queensland is still Australia's fastest-growing state.

Dr Tom Wilson and Dr Martin Bell of UQ's Queensland Centre for Population Research (QPCR) developed the model used to produce the projections under an arrangement with the State Government's Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR).

During 2003, the OESR initiated a whole-of-government process to develop new population projections for Queensland and its statistical divisions.

The QPCR was invited to participate in the advisory group to provide modelling skills and demographic expertise.

The government provided financial support to establish the research centre, a product of which was the UQ mathematical projection model known as the Sub-national Projections for Australia and Regions of Queensland (SPARQ).

The SPARQ figures, released by Queensland Treasurer Terry Mackenroth in late August, confirm that Queensland's population is likely to grow from 3.6 million in 2001 to 5.3 million in 25 years, reaching 6.5 million in 50 years.

They also show that Queensland's population is projected to grow substantially from both interstate and overseas migration.

Mr Mackenroth said that for the past two decades, Queensland had been growing faster than any other Australian state or territory, largely due to interstate migration.

However, this growth brought with it challenges in planning for the future, in which the projections could assist.

Dr Wilson lauded SPARQ as a state-of-the-art multi-regional projection model.

The model produces projections by single year of age and sex for each year of the projection period, adding projected births and migration in, and subtracting deaths and migration out, for each year into the future.

One of the key features is how the model handles migration. Compared with previous models, it is much more responsive to the way population size and age composition affects population movements within Australia.

Dr Bell, who is Director of QCPR and Acting Head of UQ's School of Geography, Planning and Architecture, said the model was one of several state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms developed through pure and applied research in the Centre.

They include the POPSTAR (Population Projections for a State/Territory And its Regions) and SUPARMODEL (Simple Uniregional Projections for A Region model).

On this site